A tightening industrial vacancy rate and a diminishing development pipeline have pushed Dallas-Fort Worth to the upper echelon of U.S. warehouse and logistics markets. 

Marcus & Millichap ranked DFW No. 3 on its new 2026 National Industrial Index as private investors have fueled metrowide transaction growth. Trading increased by around 40% year-over-year through the first quarter in DFW, thanks to a nearly 50% increase in transactions in the $1M to $10M range.

The national brokerage firm attributed that increase to DFW’s rising long-term investment demand due to the region’s robust employment growth, growing leasing momentum and diminishing supply. 

Courtesy of CapRock Partners

CapRock Partners broke ground on the 250K SF McKinney Air Business Park near the McKinney National Airport earlier this year.

“DFW is seen across the nation as a hub [for employment], with a diversified economy, massive population growth, good infrastructure,” Marcus & Millichap Senior Managing Director of Investments Adam Abushagur said of the factors that play into investors’ confidence in the metro. “We’ve been less affected by this cycle compared to a lot of other markets across the U.S, such as an LA, a New York and so on.”

Charlotte and Orlando, Florida, topped the industrial index, and the rest of the top 10 was filled out by Sun Belt and Midwest cities with a strong supply-demand balance, while Los Angeles and New York City were at Nos. 20 and 21, respectively. The declining development pipeline has tempered vacancy risks in DFW and many Sun Belt and Midwest markets, according to Marcus & Millichap’s 2026 Industrial Investment Midyear Outlook.

Marcus & Millichap projected DFW will add around 40,000 net new jobs in 2026. That employment growth, coupled with the region’s expanding population, is fueling just about all project types in the region, Abushagur said. 

For the industrial sector, employment and population growth mean more warehouse space is needed as more products need to be manufactured and delivered. Plus, more small businesses are occupying shallow-bay spaces, which is also contributing to the region’s tightening vacancy rate. 

DFW completions are projected to hit their lowest level since 2013, pushing the sector’s vacancy rate down to 8.9% in the first quarter. That’s the region’s lowest rate in three years.

Industrial demand has been strong in DFW for several years, but investors’ appetites have shifted away from the smaller infill assets that had been most popular, according to Trey McGhin, a principal at the land brokerage and investment firm Dosch Marshall Real Estate.

“Over the last 12 months, institutional equity has really returned for the industrial development market, and that, coupled with the tightening vacancy rates and supply being at a lower point, groups are now … really trying to pursue bigger product again,” McGhin said.

That has led to investors making deals in the higher-growth areas of the metro have more available land for development. Areas like Denton, South Dallas, Rockwall, Royce City, Terrell, Forney and Waxahachie are seeing renewed demand because of the desire to build 500K SF to 1M SF facilities, McGhin said.

McKinney has emerged as the hottest industrial market in DFW over the last year. Despite having one of the smallest industrial footprints in the region, it boasts some of DFW’s highest rents, thanks to tremendous growth around the expanding McKinney National Airport.

While McGhin expects demand to remain strong in the submarket, many of the best deals have already been done. 

“You’re starting to get to the point where a lot of those McKinney opportunities are more picked over,” McGhin said. “They still exist, but there’s definitely going to be more push to be on sort of the east side of the airport.”

Developers have also moved north of McKinney to the emerging city of Melissa for industrial opportunities, according to McGhin. 

The Fort Worth logistics corridor, northeast Dallas and the South Stemmons submarket are also expected to continue attracting investor attention this year, Marcus & Millichap reported. 

Abushagur attributed the increased investor confidence in DFW to the region’s status as a steady market on the national scene. McGhin said the return of institutional equity has also boosted investor confidence in getting deals capitalized. 

“When times are tough, it’s a lot easier to find $15M from a capital group than it is to go find $40M from a capital group,” McGhin said. “With the leasing being stronger, vacancy being tighter … and there just being more liquidity in the industrial capital markets, all of that is leading to more and larger deal activity.”

The International Council of Shopping Centers’ annual RECon retail convention in Las Vegas, one of the biggest events on the commercial real estate calendar, has been postponed.

Bisnow/Joseph Pimentel

Early morning crowd at ICSC RECon in Las Vegas

Two days after stating that the conference, attended by tens of thousands of people each May, would continue as planned, ICSC President and CEO Tom Magee released a statement Friday morning declaring that all of the organization’s events through June would be postponed or canceled in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

“Since I communicated with you this Wednesday, March 11, 2020, the impact of the COVID-19 situation has rapidly escalated,” McGee said in the statement. “Among other things, many national events have been cancelled, numerous ‘State of Emergency’ proclamations have been issued, schools have closed across the nation, and professional and collegiate sports organizations have cancelled or suspended their seasons. In consideration of these and other developments, and in consultation with member leadership, including ICSC’s Chair, Vice Chair and Executive Board, we have decided to extend the suspension of all ICSC events, including RECon, through June 30, 2020.”

Previously, ICSC had canceled events through April 10, which included regional conferences in Monterey, California, and Charlotte, North Carolina. RECon was scheduled for May 17-19, but McGee said the organization is now looking for dates later in the year.

ICSC’s decision follows the World Health Organization’s declaration of the coronavirus, which causes the disease COVID-19, as a pandemic, and comes amid hundreds of event cancellations around the U.S. Around the same time ICSC announced RECon’s postponement, the Masters golf tournament and Boston Marathon — both set to be held next month — announced they would be pushed back to later in the year.

RECon was attended by around 30,000 people last year. The conference brings together landlords, retailers, brokers and all sorts of service providers, and it is where many deals that have been negotiated over the course of months are consummated with in-person handshakes and post-networking revelry.

“We appreciate your patience as we manage this situation, and we will immediately communicate with you when new plans are finalized,” McGee said. “I recognize the importance of RECon in helping our members build and grow their businesses. However, given the current situation, it is not possible to ensure a healthy and safe experience for our members. I will continue to communicate with you frequently as we navigate our way forward.”